Can Juventus Protect the Serie A Throne?
- Chris Harrison
- Nov 30, 2017
- 3 min read
Italian soccer has fallen mightily since its storied heyday. Leagues like the Premier League have eclipsed Serie A financially and, since the collapse of traditional powerhouses like AC Milan and Inter, almost no Italian clubs have stood among the world's elite. Except, of course, for Juventus.
Juve, under the stewardship Antonio Conte and now Massimiliano Allegri, have pulled off an insane six consecutive league titles and three consecutive league doubles while appearing in two of the last three Champions League finals, with the rest of Italy lagging behind. But over the last two seasons, we've seen Italian soccer begin to rebound, with Napoli, Roma, and Inter building exciting young squads. And this year, they might finally topple Juve's dynasty.
Over the last six seasons, Juve has won the league by 4, 9, 17, 17, 9, and 4 points. They've rarely been the league's scoring leaders over that time, but their defensive third has been an impregnable fortress and they've conceded no more than 27 goals over a season during their reign of dominance. This year, though, they haven't quite looked like the authentic Juve, letting in a goal per match over their first 14, dropping them to third place, four points behind league-leading Napoli. Their vaunted back line is aging, with Giorgio Chiellini and Andrea Barzagli at 33 and 36 years old, respectively. Leonardo Bonucci's absence has certainly been felt. Daniele Rugani may be the future and Alex Sandro may be a star at left back, but Medhi Benatia has failed to live up to expectations, Benedikt Howedes only just made his debut, and they're dangerously thin at right back after the departure of Dani Alves.
It would be easy to assume that, like in the '15-'16 season, their poor defensive numbers were due to teams converting an abnormally high percentage of their chances and that their numbers will regress toward the mean in due time, but one particular stat is troubling for Juve supporters: Squawka's stats database has Juventus tied for the most defensive errors in the league, a very bad sign for a club that prides itself on its many veteran defenders. Not only that, but an abnormally low percentage of them have led to goals.
On the bright side, the dynamic play of Paulo Dybala and some streaky finishing from Gonzalo Higuain have made Juve the highest scoring team in Serie A so far, with a whopping 40 goals scored and their goal differential is at a solid +26, even with Napoli. But those numbers might not be sustainable in the long-term. Though they've netted five more times than the second highest-scoring club, they're just fourth in chances created and one of the teams ahead of them has played one less game than they have. It's true that gifted finishers like Dybala and Higuain can cause a team to outpace its expected goals numbers (they've scored about 15 more goals than they're "supposed to"), but right now, their statistical profile projects them as just the third best attack and fifth best defense in Italy, as well as the second best team overall, a good distance behind Napoli.
Is that good enough to win the league? They'd need some breaks to go their way. They'll either need a magical performance from Dybala all season long, a sudden burst of goalscoring from somebody among the Federico Bernardeschi/Juan Cuadrao/Douglas Costa wing trio or a return to the defensive idenity that has made them one of the most feared clubs in Europe over the last half-decade.
Friday's clash with Napoli will be a major test for both sides. For Napoli, it could legitimize their claim as usurpers to the throne. For Juve, it could help them reestablish their image as the peninsula's top dogs. It may be early in the season, but this week could go a long way in determining Juve's fate this season.
Comentários