2018 World Cup Predictions

If it seems like I haven't written about soccer in a while, it's because I haven't. I'm almost unfathomably lazy! Still, with the 2018 World Cup approaching (um, today), it's time for me to wash away any residual bitterness I have left over from this year's Champions League -- as well as Italy and the United States not qualifying for the damn World Cup -- and get fully into World Cup fever. Here's a series of predictions I'm sure will look foolish and short-sighted before the weekend has even begun. I'm going to predict the order in which the teams will finish the group stage and then take some wild-ass guesses at the knockout rounds.

Group A

1st: Uruguay

2nd: Egypt

3rd: Russia

4th: Saudi Arabia

Uruguay, the only South American nation I've never seen in a college student's Instagram feed, are actually winners of two past World Cups, an impressive feat considering their small population. They're not necessarily known as global soccer powerhouses, but despite what should be a small talent pool, they've consistently produced top-quality players. Uruguay is bringing a squad with both elite attackers like serial biter Luis Suárez and Edinson Cavani and elite defenders like Atlético Madrid's potent center back duo of Diego Godín and José María Giménez. Even if the midfield is a bit of a question mark, there's no reason to think they couldn't beat anyone in this tournament and they should coast through a weak Group A unchallenged. Russia and Saudi Arabia are easily two of the weakest teams to qualify and Egypt, even with Mohamed Salah coming off of one of the greatest seasons in Premier League history -- seriously, even if Egypt didn't have anyone else of note, they'd be worth watching for him alone -- shouldn't cause Uruguay much trouble.

Group B

1st: Spain

2nd: Iran

3rd: Portugal

4th: Morocco

I suppose the upside to me waiting this long to write this preview is that I get to mention that Spain just fired their manager, largely credited with turning the national teams' fortunes around after an embarrassing 2014 performance, a day before the start of the World Cup. Will Spain be able to withstand the inevitable locker room turmoil and coalesce into a cohesive enough unit to weather the storm?

Yeah, probably. Well, at least in the group stage, anyway. The talent gap between them and the rest of the field is too much to ignore. Diego Costa may not be a natural fit for their style of play at striker, but their midfield, even with old man Iniesta, is still absolutely ridiculous. Guys like Koke and Marco Acensio, surefire starters for almost any team in the world, are projected to be merely subs for the Spaniards. And even if their world-class defense caves in, they have the world's best keeper.

As for the rest of the group, I'm still not convinced that Portugal is all that good. They won Euro 2016 after coasting through about as favorable a series of matchups as they could have gotten and their staid, boring style of play likely won't get them far here, even if Cristiano Ronaldo should bag a few goals. I could actually see them getting exposed by the counterattacking of a very underrated Iran team. Morocco likely won't be able to score enough to have a chance to get out of the group, but their defense, led by Medhi Benatia, is solid and could easily cause the group favorites to drop points in the table.

Group C

1st: France

2nd: Denmark

3rd: Peru

4th: Australia

Much has been made of France's inability to jell for extended periods of time, but there's no reason to think they shouldn't still be heavy favorites in Group C. It's hard to pick against a side with that much talent in a tournament that ends with a single-elimination knockout round knowing that all it takes to decide a match is one moment of magic from a player like Paul Pogba or budding superstar Kylian Mbappé. Unfortunately, this tournament will be seen by many as a referendum on whether or not Pogba is worth all the money his club team spent on him, but, luckily for him, unlike in England, France has enough midfield support to allow him to run around and do cool shit like this:

Denmark and Peru will be in a dogfight for that number two spot, and it's tough to separate the two. Peru impressed in a very difficult qualifying region and are a bit of an unknown quantity to most fans. Denmark, led by Tottenham star Christian Eriksen, should have just enough firepower to escape the group stage though, especially if winger Pione Sisto lives up to his potential.

Group D

1st: Croatia

2nd: Argentina

3rd: Nigeria

4th: Iceland

Some have called Group F this year's Group of Death, but this is the one I think has the most quality from top to bottom. None of these four teams would look out of place in the Round of 16, including Iceland, who are looking to prove that their Euro 2016 performance was no fluke. They've looked up to the task since then too, topping a qualifying group with Croatia, Ukraine, and Turkey. They're for real. And I still picked them last! Like I said, this group was a tough call.

It breaks my heart leaving Nigeria, who have unbelievable amounts of sauce -- seriously, look at those jerseys and warm-up jackets -- out of the knockout stage, but I'm not sure they'll be able to generate enough goals to advance. (My DNA test results need to hurry up and come up with Nigeria so I can cop that warmup jacket and bucket hat guilt free.) Argentina's strange squad selection, particularly their choices on defense, could hurt them here, and their play as of late (they barely made the World Cup at all) has been less than inspiring. Still, they have tons of talent in attack and, you, know, they also have Lionel Messi. Croatia has a stacked midfield -- Luka Modrić and Ivan Rakitić are vital players for the two biggest club teams on the planet -- and a proven striker in the insanely hardworking Mario Mandžukić. If a few things break their way and Argentina still looks shaky, they could absolutely win this group.

Group E

1st: Brazil

2nd: Serbia

3rd: Costa Rica

4th: Switzerland

Brazil may have gotten smacked in the mouth by Germany at the last World Cup, but after a managerial change, they've recovered nicely. They cruised through the brutal South American World Cup qualifiers and they just might boast the best roster in the whole tournament. There really isn't a position you could identify as a weakness and Neymar looks ready to cement his status as one of the best to ever do it.

Switzerland and Costa Rica defend well and have shown that they can frustrate most talented opponents, but don't expect either team to make a real mark on the tournament this time around. Serbia, though, could be really good. After this World Cup, Sergej Milinković-Savić should be known by more than just people who follow Italy's Serie A or folks who spend way too much time playing Football Manager.

Group F

1st: Germany

2nd: Mexico

3rd: South Korea

4th: Sweden

The Germans will do what they always do: dominating possession and scoring beautiful team goals while somehow never actually looking cool in the process. Thomas Müller will sneak behind some poor center back, get on an impeccable through ball from Mesut Özil, casually deposit the ball in the goal, then repeat the process.

Mexico are the clear favorites to chase the second-place spot, but don't expect Korea to go down without a fight. Son Heung-Min is extremely dangerous and will be looking to carry a decent but mostly unremarkable squad to the knockout stages.

I don't even want to talk about Sweden because I'm still mad about Italy not qualifying.

Group G

1st: Belgium

2nd: England

3rd: Panama

4th: Tunisia

Belgium are largely considered to have the same issue as France -- they have plenty of talent but don't always play up to their potential. Their defense, under manager Roberto Martínez. has had issues in the past, but this team has improved a bit since coming under new management. USA fans might remember midfielder Kevin De Bruyne slicing through the American midfield over and over as the Belgians attempted an absurd 38 shots at the World Cup in 2014. De Bruyne has only gotten more dangerous since then, spraying laser-like passes all over the pitch for a Manchester City team that broke tons of Premier League records this past season. Striker Romelu Lukaku is a menace for opposing center backs to defend and Eden Hazard is as smooth a dribbler as there is outside of Messi and Neymar. Expect the Red Devils to bombard Panama and Tunisia's goals with shots from all over.

Will England do their usual England-at-the-World-Cup routine and embarrass themselves? Who will be the scapegoat this time? I actually think both questions are moot, for once. England is finally entering a World Cup with realistic expectations and, actually, a pretty good squad. Despite what the English press would have you believe, Raheem Sterling is damn good and Harry Kane is one of the most clinical finishers in soccer. They've got pretty good fullbacks, lots of athleticism, and, in Marcus Rashford, a potential breakout star. This could (and should) be a pretty solid World Cup for England.

Group H

1st: Colombia

2nd: Senegal

3rd: Poland

4th: Japan

It's difficult to say how far Colombia can go in this competition, but it's safe to assume that there will be cool goals and top-notch celebrations. Los Cafeteros are led by James Rodríguez, who looks like he could be in a boy band but is absolutely lethal on the pitch. He won the Golden Boot at the last World Cup and tends to ball out whenever he has a Colombia jersey on. The team will go as he goes, but given his ability to create goals for himself and others, and the fact that, unlike last World Cup, he has a healthy Radamel Falcao leading the line, this team could make a pretty good run.

Poland have all-world striker Robert Lewandowski, who scored a ridiculous 16 goals in qualifying, a world-class goalkeeper in Wojciech Szczęsny, and some promising creative players like Piotr Zieliński. Unfortunately, their defense is a little iffy, which is why I think Senegal could sneak by and get out of the group stage ahead of them. They have a tough midfield and Sadio Mané might just have enough creative spark to get this team going. Japan could steal some points off of any team in this group, but advancing to the knockout rounds is unlikely.

On to the knockout rounds!

ROUND OF 16

Uruguay over Iran

France over Argentina

Brazil over Mexico

Belgium over Senegal

Spain over Egypt

Croatia over Denmark

Germany over Serbia

England over Colombia

Nothing too shocking here, save for maybe France over Argentina (France has a better-balanced squad than the weirdly-constructed Argentina team) and England over Colombia. England? Winning a knockout round? Surely it can't be! They seem to have enough to trouble Colombia though, especially with an attack that looks to be much more dynamic than in years past. Of course, now that I've said this, England is gonna face another Robert Green moment and shit the bed.

QUARTERFINALS

France over Uruguay

Belgium over Brazil

Spain over Croatia

Germany over England

The best England run in decades comes to a close as they get smacked by Germany. Spain should be able to handle upstart Croatia with all of the talent they have on board. Uruguay will be a tough out, but France should have just enough to squeak by. Belgium will beat Brazil because...okay, look, I'm rooting for Belgium in this tournament. Let me have this. Eden Hazard shakes Marcelo out of his socks in the 90th minute and scores the winner. There. We good?

SEMIFINALS

Belgium over France

Spain over Germany

In the semifinals, we have the two favorites facing off in one matchup and in the other, the two teams with the most players described by the media as "mercurial." Both would be fascinating matchups and they'd be closely contested. France's poor goal scoring record as of late worries me, so I'll give the slight edge to the Belgians, who I'll assume haven't imploded yet at this point. As for the other match, the teams are very difficult to split. Both are incredibly skilled and deep. The difference could come down to something like goaltending, where David de Gea gives Spain the shot-stopping edge over anybody.

3rd Place Playoff

Germany over France

Who cares?

FINALS

Spain over Belgium

Sadly, Belgium's dream run comes to an end here. Fortunately, they can drown their sorrows with the world's best beer and chocolate. Spain may have some question marks at striker, but they've also proven before that they can succeed without getting a lot from that position (or in some cases, without playing a striker at all). Besides that one minor weakness, there's such great balance and depth on the roster, that it'd be hard to pick against them, even after the bizarre episode where they fired their manager. Feel free to rub it in my face when they flame out against, like, Egypt or something.

#WorldCup #soccer #football #FIFA #Belgium